Majority government for Mark Carney’s Liberals?

The latest projections from 338Canada indicate that Mark Carney is on track to form a majority government.

338Canadafederal update | April 8, 2025Details here → 338canada.com/federal.htmFind your riding here → 338canada.com/districts.htm

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338canada.bsky.social) 2025-04-08T11:52:36.767Z

This spectacular turnaround comes after months of decline for the Liberals under Justin Trudeau, who have seen their popularity plummet against the Conservatives.

According to the latest 338Canada projections as of April 2025, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is on track to win a majority in the House of Commons with 196 seats, far surpassing the required threshold of 172.

The Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre would obtain 120 seats, while the Bloc Québécois would garner 17. The NDP would be relegated to 8 seats, and the Green Party would retain only 2.

These figures confirm a spectacular reversal of the political landscape in just a few months, as the Liberals were given as losers at the beginning of the year.

The arrival of Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has given new momentum to the Liberal Party, which now reaches 44% of voting intentions.

This progress is partly explained by the reaction of Canadians to the tariff threats and aggressive statements by Donald Trump towards Canada’s sovereignty.

Faced with this situation, Mark Carney’s firm response seems to have convinced the electorate more than Pierre Poilievre’s hesitant attempt to distance himself from the American president.

Faced with Carney, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is struggling to maintain the momentum of his party, which was still enjoying a comfortable lead in voting intentions not so long ago. His image remains tarnished by controversial statements and a political line often perceived as mirroring that of Donald Trump, which hinders his ability to broaden his electorate.

According to Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada, the Liberals now have a 55% chance of winning a majority, compared to less than 1% in January.

Canadians are called to the polls on April 28th.

This content was created with the help of AI.