North Korea could add more than 20,000 troops in Russia

The document indicates that between 25,000 and 30,000 additional troops could be added to the contingent of 11,000 North Koreans who deployed in the Russian Kursk region in November to repel a Ukrainian incursion. Some 4,000 of them were killed or wounded during this operation, according to Western authorities.

Some 3,000 additional North Korean troops were also sent to Russia at the start of the year, as confirmed by the South Korean authorities in March.

Preparations for a new deployment were seen in satellite images provided to CNN by the Open Source Centre (OSC), a UK organization specializing in open source intelligence related to defense and security.

In November, a Russian Ropucha-class vessel capable of carrying up to 400 soldiers docked at the North Korean port of Dunai. And the same type of craft appeared again at this port on May 18, according to satellite images.

The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency reports that Russian military aircraft are being refitted for troop transport.

The CSO shared with CNN satellite images taken at Sunan airport, North Korea, on June 4. These show cargo planes on the tarmac, possibly IL76s, the same type of aircraft used in previous deployments. Although the images do not reveal their exact content, their movements are consistent with last year’s schematics.

This potential deployment of some 30,000 North Korean troops was also confirmed by a Western intelligence officer based on information independent of the Ukrainian assessment.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) informed parliamentarians that North Korea had begun selecting personnel for away deployment as early as July or August.

Jenny Town, a Korea expert at the Stimson Center, said the Ukrainian estimate of 30,000 troops seemed high, but “they could actually reach that number. They won’t be elite soldiers. Kim Jong Un has said he fully supports Russia, so it all depends on what Moscow asks for.”

In her opinion, 10,000 to 20,000 troops would be a “more realistic” figure. “There are rumors of Russian generals in North Korea, already training soldiers there”, she added.

These revelations come just a few weeks after Vladimir Putin’s top adviser and former Defense Minister, Sergei Choigou, made his second trip to North Korea in two weeks. On June 17, he visited Pyongyang for the second time in two weeks to announce the dispatch of 1,000 deminers and 5,000 North Korean workers to Russia to clear mines and “restore infrastructure destroyed by the occupiers” in the Kursk region.

The dispatch of military reinforcements by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Moscow would represent a major development in this conflict, demonstrating his strengthened commitment to Russia. The latter was seen in North Korean state media inspecting special forces on May 14, sparking speculation about a future deployment.

According to Jenny Town, Pyongyang has a long-term advantage in this alliance: “The more Russia owes North Korea in blood, the more North Korea will benefit, even if it costs them in the short term.”

On Friday, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Russia was massing 110,000 troops near Pokrovsk, a strategic frontline town, in preparation for a possible offensive.